Modeling Research of the 27-day Forecast of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux (I)     

Liu Si-qing  Zhong Qiu-zhen  Wen Jing  Dou Xian-kang 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2010

Adopting the autoregressive method for time-series modeling, we have made a study on the medium-term forecast of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7). The result of forecast experiments and the error analysis indicate that when the solar activity is at a rather low level and the 27-day periodicity of F10.7 is apparent, the autoregressive forecast method has a high accuracy and relatively ideal effectiveness, but when a large active region appears or disappears on the solar dusk, the forecast effectiveness is not ideal. This means that the autoregressive method for the time-series modeling can reflect well the 27-day periodicity of F10.7, and that it has certain applicability for building a mediumterm forecast model of F10.7. By comparing the forecast results in the period from 21th September 2005 to 7th June 2007, it is demonstrated that the accuracy of the autoregressive forecast method is equivalent to that of the forecast made by the American Air Force.  相似文献   

Characteristics of sea ice kinematics from the marginal ice zone to the packed ice zone observed by buoys deployed during the 9th Chinese Arctic Expedition     

Xiaomin Chang  Longchun Ye  Guangyu Zuo  Jingyue Li  Keyu Wei  Yinke Dou 《海洋学报(英文版)》2022,41(7):113-127

Sea ice growth and consolidation play a significant role in heat and momentum exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. However, few in situ observations of sea ice kinematics have been reported owing to difficulties of deployment of buoys in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). To investigate the characteristics of sea ice kinematics from MIZ to packed ice zone (PIZ), eight drifting buoys designed by Taiyuan University of Technology were deployed in the open water at the ice edge of the Canadian Basin. Sea ice near the buoy constantly increased as the buoy drifted, and the kinematics of the buoy changed as the buoy was frozen into the ice. This process can be determined using sea ice concentration, sea skin temperature, and drift speed of buoy together. Sea ice concentration data showed that buoys entered the PIZ in mid-October as the ice grew and consolidated around the buoys, with high amplitude, high frequency buoy motions almost ceasing. Our results confirmed that good correlation coefficient in monthly scale between buoy drift and the wind only happened in the ice zone. The correlation coefficient between buoys and wind was below 0.3 while the buoys were in open water. As buoys entered the ice zone, the buoy speed was normally distributed at wind speeds above 6 m/s. The buoy drifted mainly to the right of the wind within 45° at wind speeds above 8 m/s. During further consolidation of the ice in MIZ, the direct forcing on the ice through winds will be lessened. The correlation coefficient value increased to 0.9 in November, and gradually decreased to 0.7 in April.  相似文献   

宁阳县黑山头饰面用变粒角闪岩矿床地质特征及矿床成因          下载免费PDF全文

刘小琼  郭加朋  赵宏生  李胜  段金平  彭超 《山东国土资源》2014,30(8)

宁阳县黑山头饰面用变粒角闪岩矿床赋存在阜平期蒙山超单元龟蒙顶单元片麻状中粒含黑云花岗闪长岩和西官庄单元片麻状中粒含黑云角闪英云闪长岩中。矿体为新太古代五台期麻塔单元粗粒变角闪石岩,墨绿色,夹杂白色较大不规则条带,中粗粒变晶结构,块状构造。区内主要有1个矿体,呈岩脉状产出,倾角西陡东缓,矿体中间薄两端厚,连续性较好,属于岩浆型花岗岩矿床。  相似文献   

哈拉湖岩芯XRF扫描元素统计分析及其环境意义   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

马雪洋  陈豆  阳亚平  张玉枝  张家武 《盐湖研究》2014,(4):1-10

青藏高原东北缘高山湖泊哈拉湖是位于季风与西风影响的交汇带的封闭深水湖泊,是区域环境和气候变化的良好记录载体。目前对该湖的研究还较少,缺乏对沉积物中元素环境意义的系统认识。通过高分辨率XRF岩芯扫描,用相关、聚类和因子分析的方法对哈拉湖沉积岩芯地球化学元素进行分析。结果显示Ti、K、Si、Al、Fe、Mn等元素变化一致,相关性高,归为同一类,即径流输入的陆源碎屑组分,反映了流域水文状况如径流量的变化。Sr、Zr元素相关性高,为赋存在粗颗粒沉积物中的元素,根据哈拉湖实际,应为冬季湖泊冰面风力搬运,反映了湖区冬季风力强度的变化。Ca元素既与径流输入元素总体变化一致,也与Sr、Zr元素显著相关,且在第一和第二主成分(径流和风力)上的载荷相当,表明哈拉湖沉积物中的碳酸盐既有粗颗粒的外源碎屑,也有湖泊自生的组分,这在利用碳酸盐进行地球化学研究时应重视,注意去除外源碎屑碳酸盐的影响。可溶元素S和Cl可能反映了入湖水量与蒸发对比情况,与湖泊盐度有关。  相似文献   

一次强雷暴中的多灾种天气特征对比分析     

王洪生  钟颖颖  吴海英  高晓静  刘燕 《气象科学》2014,34(4):465-471

用Micaps和NCEP再分析资料对2012年7月3日发生在淮河以南地区的大范围强雷暴天气进行了分析,得出高、低空急流配置,形成低空辐合,高空辐散,槽线由高到低前倾,有利增强大气不稳定层结,中尺度切变线南北摆动具有触发对流作用等,为该区强雷暴多灾种天气的发生,提供了动力和热力条件。从云图、雷达参数和地闪特征对比分析得出冰雹、雷击、强降水,分别发生在强对流云团发展的不同时间和不同部位。其云团的形态、强度和范围等也不同。冰雹所表现出的回波强度、回波顶高和垂直积分液态水含量为最强,雷击次之,强降水最弱。在地闪出现的各个阶段都有可能出现雷击事故,但多为负地闪,强度均较强。强降水过程多为负地闪,强度较弱,降水集中时段,地闪频次高。冰雹发生时地闪频数明显下降,且多为正闪。雷击过程强度和陡度变化最平缓,冰雹过程突变最明显。雷击发生在整个地闪过程中强度和陡度都相对较大的时刻;冰雹发生前约半小时有强度和陡度的骤增;强降水阶段地闪平均强度和陡度都最小。  相似文献   

南京南郊大气湍流统计特征的实验研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

张贺  张宏升  赵子龙  蔡旭辉  康凌 《气象科学》2014,34(2):139-148

利用2011年8月南京南郊溧水大气边界层加强实验站的大气湍流观测资料,分析了城市郊区自然状态下垫面大气湍流宏观统计规律,以及湍流动量、热量、水汽和CO2的湍流输送特征。结果表明:不稳定层结下,3方向风速归一化标准差σu/u*,σv/u*,σw/u*,随稳定度参数ζ呈1/3幂次关系;稳定层结下也呈现类似规律;近中性条件下,分别趋近于常数。不稳定层结下,温度、比湿、CO2质量浓度归一化标准差σT/|T*|,σq/|q*|,σρCO2/|ρCO2*|,随ζ呈1/3幂次负相关关系,但结果相对离散,并且相对离散的数据对应着较小的|T*|、|q*|、|ρCO2*|值;稳定层结下,三者ζ之间的关系没有明显变化规律。实验期间相对于感热通量,潜热通量在热量平衡中所占比例较大;CO2通量平均值为负,整体表现为碳汇。水汽、热量和CO2均存在水平输送。  相似文献   

Effects of an artificial oyster shell reef on macrobenthic communities in Rongcheng Bay,East China     

徐勤增  张立斌  张涛  周毅  夏苏东  刘辉  杨红生 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2014,32(1):99-110

An artificial oyster shell reef was deployed in Rongcheng Bay, East China. However, the effects of this reef on the surrounding macrobenthic communities were unknown. We compared sedimentary factors, macrobenthic biomass, abundance, and community composition and ecological indicators between the reef and non-reef areas over a one year period. The mean values for chlorophyll a （Chl a）, total organic matter （TOM）, total organic carbon （TOC）, and total nitrogen （TN） content in surface sediments in the reef area were slightly higher than those in the non-reef area. The Chl a levels differed significantly between the two areas, but the TOM, TOC, and TN were not significantly different. The abundance of crustaceans was significantly different between the two areas, but the abundance and biomass ofpolychaetes, echinoderms, mollusk did not differ significantly. The permutational multivariate analysis of variance （PERMANOVA） revealed that the macrobenthic community differed significantly through time and analysis of similarity multivariate analyses （ANOSIM） revealed that the macrobenthic community differed significantly in some months. The ecological indicators revealed that the environmental quality of the reef area was slightly better than that of the non-reef area. Overall, our results suggest that the artificial oyster shell reef may change the macrobenthic community and the quality of the environment. Despite the lack of an effect in the short term, long-term monitoring is still needed to evaluate the effects of artificial oyster shell reefs on macrobenthic communities.  相似文献   

Zinc and copper bioaccumulation in fish from Laizhou Bay,the Bohai Sea     

刘金虎  曹亮  黄伟  张传涛  窦硕增 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2014,32(3):491-502

Abstract Zinc （Zn） and copper （Cu） concentrations were determined in the tissues （muscle, stomach, liver, gills, skin, and gonads） of five commercial fish species （mullet Liza haematocheilus, flathead Platycephalus indicus, mackerel Scomberomorus niphonius, silver pomfret Pampus argenteus, and sea bass Lateolabrax japonicus） from Laizhou Bay in the Bohai Sea. Metal bioaccumulation was highest in the metabolically active tissues of the gonads and liver. Bioconcentration factors for Zn were higher in all tissues （gonads 44.35, stomach 7.73, gills 7.72, liver 5.61, skin 4.88, and muscle 1.63） than the corresponding values for Cu （gonads 3.50, stomach 3.00, gills 1.60, liver 5.43, skin 1.50, and muscle 0.93）. Mackerel tissues accumulated metal to higher concentrations than did other fish species, but bioaccumulation levels were not significantly correlated with the trophic levels of the fish. Zn and Cu concentrations in the tissues were generally negatively correlated with fish length, except for a few tissues of sea bass. Risk assessment based on national and international permissible limits and provisional tolerances for weekly intake of Zn and Cu revealed that the concentrations of these two metals in muscle were relatively low and would not pose hazards to human health.  相似文献   

Effect of copper on the growth of shrimps Litopenaeus vannamei: water parameters and copper budget in a recirculating system     

程波  刘鹰  杨红生  宋怿  李贤 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2014,32(5):1092-1104

Shrimps( Litopenaeus vannamei) were intensively cultured in a recirculating aquaculture system for 98 days to investigate effects of 0.3 mg/L Cu on its performance, Cu budget, and Cu distribution. Shrimps in Cu-treated systems had greater mean final weight(11.10 vs 10.50 g), body length(107.23 vs 106.42 mm), survival rate(67.80% vs 66.40%), and yield(6.42 vs 5.99 kg/m 3), and lower feed conversion ratio(1.20 vs 1.29) than those in control systems but the differences were not significant. Vibrio numbers remained stable(10 4 –10 6 colony forming units/mL) in the rearing tanks of both control and treated systems. Total ammonium-N, nitrite-N, nitrate-N, pH, chemical oxygen demand, 5-day carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand, and total suspended solids were similar in controls and treatments. Dissolved Cu concentration in the treated systems decreased from 0.284 to 0.089 mg/L while in the control systems it increased from 0.006 2 to 0.018 mg/L. The main sources of Cu in the treated systems were the artificially added component(75.7% of total input), shrimp feed(21.0%), water(2.06%), and shrimp biomass(1.22%). The major outputs of Cu occurred via the mechanical filter(41.7%), water renewal(15.6%), and draining of the sediment trap(15.1%). The foam fractionator removed only 0.69% of total Cu input. Harvested shrimp biomass accounted for 11.68% of Cu input. The Cu concentration of shrimps in the Cu-treated systems(30.70 mg/kg wet weight) was significantly higher than that in control systems(22.02 mg/kg). Both were below the maximum permissible concentration(50 mg/kg) for Cu in seafood for human consumption in China. Therefore, recirculating systems can be used for commercial on-growing of Litopenaeus vannamei without loss of shrimp quality, even in water polluted by 0.30 mg/L Cu. The mechanical filter is the main route for Cu removal.  相似文献   

Analysis of fatty acid composition of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus using multivariate statistics     

徐勤增  高菲  许强  杨红生 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2014,32(6):1314-1319

Fatty acids （FAs） provide energy and also can be used to trace trophic relationships among organisms. Sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus goes into a state of aestivation during warm summer months. We examined fatty acid profiles in aestivated and non-aestivated A. japonicus using multivariate analyses （PERMANOVA, MDS, ANOSIM, and SIMPER）. The results indicate that the fatty acid profiles of aestivated and non-aestivated sea cucumbers differed significantly. The FAs that were produced by bacteria and brown kelp contributed the most to the differences in the fatty acid composition of aestivated and non- aestivated sea cucumbers. Aestivated sea cucumbers may synthesize FAs from heterotrophic bacteria during early aestivation, and long chain FAs such as eicosapentaenoic （EPA） and docosahexaenoic acid （DHA） that produced from intestinal degradation, are digested during deep aestivation. Specific changes in the fatty acid composition of A. japonicus during aestivation needs more detailed study in the future.  相似文献